Reflections on key takeaways from climate talks in Belém with Professor Don Henry

Branch staff at Climate Reality Project gathering, COP 30, 2025

Professor Don Henry AM just returned from this year's United Nations Climate conference, COP 30, in Belém, Brazil. Don spent a little time reporting and sharing his reflections on the conference and its outcomes for our network in Australia, Aotearoa, and the Pacific.

What came out of the final consensus agreement in Belém?

Firstly, it was a pretty tough Conference of the Parties (COP) in a warm climate, but in the very welcoming City of Belém, Brazil, at the mouth of the Amazon Rainforest. We even saw a fire at the COP facilities last week, and we faced tough negotiations.

This year's conference saw brazen blocking of substantial progress in the final agreement by countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other petrostates.

COP 30 was the first annual climate summit that the United States did not participate in, but 194 countries, out of the 196 signatories to the Paris Agreement, attended. Despite all this, there have been some vital outcomes.

Entrance to conference United Nations conference center in Belém, photograph provided by Don Henry, 2025

The overall agreement is modest. Brazil's leadership and its President's efforts to establish a planning process for a transition away from fossil fuels were blocked, leading to widespread disappointment. Instead, they've been put into a voluntary 'side' agreement, more on that below. 

Constructively, there was agreement that a pledge to triple funding for adaptation to climate impacts is necessary, along with serious work on just transition plans, as we continue to see the acceleration of renewable energy and clean economies internationally.

What about outcomes in the shape of voluntary side agreements?

Now, turning to the voluntary 'side' agreements, an essential thing to note is that everything doesn't hinge on the negotiated final agreement at a COP. It's very hard to get 194 countries to agree on anything, and in a consensus process, any one country can block agreement.

So, voluntary agreements involving non-state actors, backed by many countries, can be powerful. They build climate action plans and support their implementation.

City of Belém, photograph provided by Don Henry, 2025

As mentioned above, Brazil attempted to establish a process for transitioning away from fossil fuels, but it didn't succeed; it was blocked. It is now adopted as a voluntary agreement. Over 90 countries, led by Colombia, the Netherlands and with assistance from Brazil, will continue working on this.

Unfortunately, even at the mouth of the Amazon, a consensus agreement on forests was blocked, and forests will fall into that category of voluntary action. However, Brazil established the Tropical Forests Finance Facility and will carry this action forward at subsequent COPs.

This is good news for those who seek opportunities to bring action on climate and nature conservation together, as they are so closely intertwined.

Did anything noteworthy happen to commitments required under the Paris Agreement?

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit new national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions every five years. This was one of those significant five-year moments, and a historic thing happened.

For the first time, China committed to a 2035 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It's a modest commitment compared to what the science says is needed, as is almost every country's commitment at the moment.

It is, however, a clear signal from one of the world's biggest economies that we can expect China to continue boosting international trade through renewables and clean energy technologies.

So, while the sum of national commitments still falls well short of the Paris Agreement goals, there is some improvement in the global effort to curb the climate crisis.

Keynote address by Chris Bowen MP at COP 30, photograph provided by Don Henry, 2025

In Brazil, there was also recognition that the five-year accelerated process needs strengthening, and recommendations will be brought forward to next year's conference in Antalya, Türkiye.

What happened to Australia’s bid to host COP 31 in partnership with Pacific Island Nations? 

Despite overwhelming international support for Australia’s bid to host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in partnership with Pacific Island Nations, Türkiye disappointingly continued to block this into the second week of COP 30. As such, Australia and the Pacific were pushed to strike an agreement with Türkiye for COP 31.

Though unmatched in resilience and ingenuity, many Australian and Pacific communities are among those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. And for many in the region, the damage caused by climate change far outweighs their financial capacity to respond and repair, let alone adapt.

Pacific Island Nations are well known for their climate diplomacy, having played integral roles in securing strong climate outcomes at COPs and in other international decision-making forums.

Mangroves in Tarawa Kiribati, photograph provided by Imogen Butler, 2024

The Australia-Pacific bid offered frontline communities a rare opportunity to amplify their voices on the global stage, underscore the urgency of the action required, and secure international support to adapt and implement solutions that future-proof communities from further harm. 

In countless instances, Pacific communities have held a torch for the rest of the world; the recent passing of an advisory opinion on climate change by the world's highest court is just one example of Pacific leadership.

However, the agreement struck with Türkiye sees Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, as the agreed 'President of Negotiations' through next year in the lead-up to the COP and during it. In this role, Minister Bowen will set and run the negotiating agenda, appoint high-level positions and pairings, and prepare the draft decision text. Türkiye will host the COP and 'Action Agenda'.

Climate Action Network Australia Panel at COP 30, photograph provided by Don Henry, 2025

There will also be a pre-COP event in the Pacific next year, which will present the Pacific, supported by Australia, a crucial opportunity to advance climate ambition. Türkiye and Australia should now strive to encourage all countries to deliver on the Paris Agreement goals at COP 31.

Both countries should act to rapidly scale up their own transitions, including with a transparent and just phase-out of fossil fuel exports. As Pacific Islands Climate Action Network’s International Policy Lead, Dr Sindra Sharm, affirms, "the decision on the COP 31 presidency in no way shifts the global responsibility to deliver on the Paris Agreement and limit warming to 1.5°C."

So all in all, these climate talks are challenging, and when you're trying, in this case, to get 194 countries to agree on anything, it's not easy. Despite this year's tough geopolitics, we've still seen some modest progress, and voluntary agreements and coalitions are becoming increasingly important in advancing climate outcomes.

And of course, now, even though it's not an ideal outcome, the Pacific and Australia will play a crucial role in the lead-up to COP31 in Türkiye next year. All those invested should encourage Australia and the Pacific to excel with the Pacific pre-COP and the 'Presidency of Negotiations'.

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Don Henry AM is an Enterprise Professor of Environmentalism at the University of Melbourne and an International Board Member for The Climate Reality Project.